IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.4	#203
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	59.3	#347
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.2	#236

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.2	#171

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.2%	5.4%	2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.4	14.3	15.0

.500 or above	54.6%	65.2%	36.4%
.500 or above in Conference	50.9%	57.5%	39.8%
Conference Champion	4.7%	6.1%	2.4%
Last Place in Conference	9.2%	6.2%	14.3%

First Four	0.7%	0.9%	0.4%
First Round	3.7%	4.9%	1.9%
Second Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b	0.1 - 0.8	0.1 - 1.1
Quad 2	0.6 - 2.5	0.7 - 3.6
Quad 3	3.6 - 5.9	4.3 - 9.5
Quad 4	10.6 - 4.5	15.0 - 14.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	212	Air Force	W	64-63	63%
Nov 17, 2018	202	@ Drake	L	65-66	39%
Nov 21, 2018	317	Cal Poly	W	68-61	73%
Nov 23, 2018	334	South Carolina Upstate	W	75-66	80%
Nov 24, 2018	241	@ Portland	W	65-63	47%
Nov 28, 2018	323	Rice	W	68-60	82%
Dec 01, 2018	158	@ Texas San Antonio	L	68-71	31%
Dec 05, 2018	309	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	66-60	61%
Dec 08, 2018	312	Houston Baptist	W	74-68	79%
Dec 15, 2018	311	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	W	73-67	62%
Dec 22, 2018	94	@ Arkansas	L	64-71	19%
Jan 03, 2019	148	Georgia Southern	L	65-68	49%
Jan 05, 2019	85	Georgia St.	L	61-69	34%
Jan 10, 2019	221	@ Coastal Carolina	W	65-64	44%
Jan 12, 2019	175	@ Appalachian St.	L	67-69	35%
Jan 17, 2019	264	Arkansas Little Rock	W	62-59	70%
Jan 19, 2019	286	Arkansas St.	W	70-66	73%
Jan 24, 2019	85	@ Georgia St.	L	61-69	18%
Jan 26, 2019	148	@ Georgia Southern	L	65-68	29%
Feb 02, 2019	256	Texas Arlington	W	69-66	69%
Feb 07, 2019	175	Appalachian St.	L	67-69	55%
Feb 09, 2019	221	Coastal Carolina	W	65-64	63%
Feb 14, 2019	286	@ Arkansas St.	W	70-66	54%
Feb 16, 2019	264	@ Arkansas Little Rock	W	62-59	52%
Feb 21, 2019	210	Louisiana Monroe	W	63-62	62%
Feb 23, 2019	100	Louisiana	L	65-72	38%
Feb 28, 2019	192	@ Troy	L	65-66	38%
Mar 02, 2019	150	@ South Alabama	L	65-68	29%
Mar 09, 2019	256	@ Texas Arlington	W	69-66	50%
Projected Record						15.0 - 14.0	8.6 - 9.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.6	1.4	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.1		4.7	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.8	2.5	2.2	0.7	0.1	0.0			7.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	2.8	3.2	2.0	0.4	0.0					8.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.6	3.0	4.0	1.8	0.3	0.0						9.8	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	3.0	4.3	2.0	0.4	0.0							10.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.8	4.9	2.0	0.3	0.0								10.1	6th
7th							0.2	2.1	4.9	2.2	0.3	0.0									9.7	7th
8th						0.1	1.7	4.6	3.0	0.5	0.0										9.8	8th
9th					0.1	1.4	3.7	3.0	0.4	0.0											8.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.3	3.4	2.8	0.6	0.0												8.3	10th
11th		0.1	0.3	1.5	2.5	1.8	0.5	0.0													6.7	11th
12th	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.8	1.3	0.3	0.0														5.5	12th

Total	0.2	0.6	1.6	3.4	5.2	7.1	8.9	10.7	11.4	11.2	10.1	9.5	7.4	5.5	4.0	2.2	0.7	0.3	0.1			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	99.8%	0.3		0.3	0.0
16-2	89.3%	0.7		0.5	0.2
15-3	65.6%	1.4		0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
14-4	35.7%	1.4		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	11.9%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.7%	4.7		2.5	1.7	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		75.6%	51.2%	24.4%	9.6						0.0	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		50.0%
17-1	0.3%		43.4%	28.2%	15.2%	11.1					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		21.2%
16-2	0.7%		33.6%	26.0%	7.6%	12.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.5		10.3%
15-3	2.2%		21.5%	20.2%	1.3%	13.4												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.7		1.6%
14-4	4.0%		16.3%	16.3%	0.0%	13.6												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	3.3		0.0%
13-5	5.5%		10.0%	10.0%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	4.9
12-6	7.4%		8.6%	8.6%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	6.7
11-7	9.5%		4.7%	4.7%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	9.0
10-8	10.1%		4.6%	4.6%		15.5															0.0	0.2	0.3	9.7
9-9	11.2%		1.9%	1.9%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	11.0
8-10	11.4%		0.8%	0.8%		15.6															0.0	0.0	0.1	11.3
7-11	10.7%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
6-12	8.9%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	8.8
5-13	7.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
4-14	5.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.2
3-15	3.4%																							3.4
2-16	1.6%																							1.6
1-17	0.6%																							0.6
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.2%	4.0%	0.1%	14.4					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.2	1.1	95.8		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%